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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."