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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.